The Ides of July – Confluence of Events and Strange Bedfellows!

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opinyon-politics

Over the past year, more and more people have asked me the following questions:

1. Will (PCOS/PH) President Benigno “Noynoy/PNoy” Cojuangco Aquino finish his six year term and step down in a peaceful and orderly manner on June 30, 2016?
2. Are there rumblings in the military? Are there Destabilization Efforts going on? Are Coup (de ‘Eta) Conspiracies and Plots being hatched?
3. When will Public Indignation Explode? What Form will it take? Is it possible for Extra Constitutional Regime Change to occur again? If so, will it still be in the form of an EDSA type Popular Uprising cum Military Support?
4. Will Noynoy also be investigated, prosecuted, charged, arrested, detained, tried, convicted and imprisoned if he is ousted or after he steps down?

I have more detailed questions of my own. These questions have been percolating in my mind since the first major crisis of the Aquino Administrator – the August 23, 2010 Luneta Hostage Massacre. However, they have become more nagging, noisy and persistent since the Napoles P 10 Billion PDAF/Pork Scam/Scandal erupted almost a year ago. The single thing that I have been curious about the most is how the people’s anger boils internally and explodes and spills out externally.

My own tentative and qualified answers to the above questions have generally been quite conservative. First, I believe that PNoy will complete his term. Second, I believe that it is almost impossible to get the military to commit and move politically. Finally, I believe that the partial civilian and predominantly Middle Class Critical Mass of August 26, 2013, has been dissipated.

I have discovered and defined the theory of the decade and a half political cycle – fifteen years. I wrote three consecutive columns about this last year. These were in OpinYon, Volume IV, issues # 4, 5 and 6 (September 16, 23 and 30.) entitled: “Six Decades of Politics and Protest.”, “Beware of the Fourteen Year Cycle!” and “Martial Law Yesterday and Today!”. However, my cycle is not a numerological cycle as in Marcos’s seven (7) and multiples of it. Thus, he always claimed that he declared Martial Law on September 21, 1972, even though he implemented it on September 22 and 23.

My fifteen year cycle may be less than or more than fifteen years. It only refers to years and not days or dates except when I want to be superstitious for my own reasons as in the case of the Ides of March – March 15. However, in the case of the latter, I don’t hold myself or my predictions to the exact date of the Ides of March. To me, the period that we have to be excited or wary about stretches from January 16 until the middle of March. The former is the Start of EDSA II on Tuesday night, Feb 16, 2001. The latter is the end of the second semester of classes and the regular start of the summer heat (which is not conducive for rallies and street activities).

The next National Elections in 2016, will occur fifteen years after EDSA II (January 16 – 20, 2001), thirty years after EDSA I (Feb 22 – 25, 1986), forty-four years after the Declaration of Martial Law (September 21-23, 1972), forty-five years after the Bombing of Plaza Miranda (August 21, 1971). Seventy five years after the start of World war II in the Pacific (December 7 and 8, 1941, one hundred and twenty years after the Katipunan’s Cry of Balintawak (August 1896).

In line with this, more or less, decade and a half cycle, developments, events and critical mass are coming to a head. In so far as a big mass event is concerned, the August 26, 2013 Million People March to Luneta, occurred a mere thirteen and a half years after EDSA II. The three months before the Ides of July – July 15, this year of 2014, were full of history molding events and occurrences. As we enter the month of July and the second half of the year 2014 (a decade after “Hello Garci!” and a century after the start of World War I.), we see a CONFLUENCE of events that might bring about the Critical Mass that eluded the Anti – GMA Coalition for the entire length of the nine and a half year GMA Administration.

Tomorrow, Tuesday, July 1, the Supreme Court may finally decide on the Constitutionality of the Disbursement Acceleration Program (DAP). We have been waiting for this since Tuesday, June 2. The Supreme Court has delayed biting the bitter bullet for a whole month or four Tuesdays (the regular En Banc Session day.). The Justices have been tweedling their fingers, twisting in the wind and squirming in their assess. Since they declared the PDAF Unconstitutional last year, they can not do otherwise with the DAP. They are trying to invent a formula that will only make the Unconstitutionality prospective and free the Inventors of the DAP from Criminal and Civil Liability for their past actions.

Originally, the Disqualification Case against former President, now Manila Mayor Joseph Ejercito Estrada, was going to be scheduled for the Supreme Court En Banc session tomorrow. Take note that Erap has expressed the feeling that his family is being persecuted. J. V. got only 11th place in the Senatorial race. E. R. was the only elected and incumbent winner who was ousted from his post in less than a year for the all too common sin of overspending. Jinggoy was one of three Opposition Senators singled out for Selective Persecution/Prosecution out of two dozen past and present Senators named in the Napoles long list.

The 100th Anniversary of the Iglesia ni Cristo will be celebrated on Sunday, July 27. It can only become their biggest mass Mobilization in a hundred years. Although they will not admit it, they mobilized during the Corona Impeachment as well as during one of the highs in the up and down series of rumors about Erap’s impending disqualification.

The Opening of Congress and the State of the Nation Address is scheduled for Monday, July 28, 2014.

Four weeks after, on Tuesday, August 26, is the first Anniversary of the Million People March to the Luneta.

If only I were still an active planner and implementor of Destabilization, I would thank God for such a heaven sent series of schedules. I say to my successors – don’t let the Opportunity pass. It might not present itself again in your active lifetimes.

Who and What are the Strange Bedfellows? (To be continued…)

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