A year after the May 13, 2013 elections, Vice President Jejomar Cabauatan Binay is still way ahead in the race for President in 2016. Pulse Asia conducted its regular Ulat ng Bayan Nationwide (1,200 respondents with a + or – 3 % margin of error.) Public Opinion Survey from March 19 to 26, 2014. If the national elections for President, Vice President and twelve Senators had been held then, the following would have been the results (Assuming that the candidates were the same ones on the list chosen by Pulse Asia below.):
For President (% of a hundred.): Binay 40, Poe 20, Santiago 10, Escudero 9, Roxas 6, Marcos 5, Cayetano 4, Kris Aquino 4, Revilla 3 and Lacson 2.
For Vice President (% of a hundred.): Poe 24, Escudero 20, Roxas 8, Trillanes 7, Cayetano 6, Marcos 5, Kris Aquino 5, Lacson 5 , Vilma Santos 5, Jinggoy Estrada 4, Bam Aquino 3, Revilla 3, J V Ejercito 2 and Leni Robredo 1.
For Senators: Sotto, Drilon, Roxas, Recto, Pangilinan, Lacson, Zubiri, Gordon, Marcos, Osmena, Madrigal, Pacquiao (12th), Hontiveros, de Lima, Kris Aquino (15th), Lino Cayetano, Herbert Bautista, Jackie Enrile, Tootsie Guingona, Mitos Magsaysay (20th), Lani Mercado, Ruffy Biazon, Gwen Pimentel, Ed Hagedorn, Leni Robredo (25th), Shalani, Dingdong Dantes, Gina de Venecia, Dinky Soliman and Teddy Casino (30th).
The above results belong to the portion of the survey for public release. These are the subject matter and answers to questions that are regularly formulated and included by Pulse Asia in their regular surveys. However, there are subject matter and questions that are included and initiated and therefore paid for by individuals or organizations for their own purposes. These are not released to the mass media and to the public for a certain period of time.
In the said private portion of the above survey was the same question regarding who the respondent would vote for for President if the elections were held during the period of the survey. However, the list of candidates included former President and present Manila Mayor Joseph “ERAP” Ejercito Estrada. ERAP made it to second place, behind Binay but ahead of Poe.
As a matter of public disclosure, I would like to put on record my campaign preference and voting record for all the Presidential and Vice Presidential elections since I was born on October 12, 1948.
1948 – No memory of any political consciousness, preference or activity on my part.
1953 – Ramon Magsaysay for President. Contempt and hatred for Elpidio Quirino. No consciousness or preference for Vice President.
1957 – PPP*. Manuel Manahan for President, Uncle Vicente Araneta for Vice President.
1961 – United Opposition Party (LP/PPP/GA). Vice President Diosdado Macapagal for President, Emmanuel Pelaez for Vice President. Raul Manglapus and Manuel Manahan for Senators.
1965 – PPP*. Raul Manglapus for President, Manuel Manahan for Vice President.
1969 – I turned twenty one in October 1969. I must have registered and voted but cannot remember for whom – the NP Marcos/Lopez or the LP Osmena/Magsaysay. I volunteered for CNEA with Jimmy Ferrer, Chino Roces, Charito Planas and my classmate Edgar Jopson. I remember operating in the Quirino Ave, area of Quezon City. As early as November 1969, I already felt and foresaw that Marcos’s reelection and victory would lead to a pressure cooker effect in our society.
1973 – We were for consolidating the Moderate and Reformist Political and Protest Movement with the active and organized sectors like the farmers and labor (We did so under the Kapisanan ng mga Anakpawis ng Pilipinas.). We were united under the KAP with the FFF, FFW, PAFLU, PHILCONTU and YCW. We intended to coalesce with the LP under the Presidency of Senator Gerardo “Gerry” Roxas. We were pushing for a South North tandem of Roxas (Capiz) and Manglapus (Candon, Ilocos Sur).
1986 – LABAN/UNIDO. Cory Aquino and Doy Laurel.
1992 – PRP. Miriam Santiago and Jun Magsaysay.
1998 – Kakampi ni … . ERAP and GMA.
2004 – FPJ and Loren Legarda. After Binay took over the campaign from the ASO (Angara, Sotto and Oreta.) during the Holy Week of 2004 and after he and ERAP led the UNO and together with the NP’s Senate President Manny Villar won a majority of the Senate seats in the 2007 Senatorial elections, I believed that Binay should run for Senator in 2010. My biggest ever mistake in political analysis was believing that Binay had no chance at all of winning as Vice President in 2010.
2010 – Noynoy for President. Balimbing (sometimes Binay, sometimes Mar.) for Vice President. Binay won, beating Noynoy’s LP running mate, Mar Roxas, as well as long time leading Vice Presidentiable Loren Legarda. Loren and Chiz Escudero had led in Vice Presidential surveys for the past three years since 2007 until 2009.
After his unexpected victory in the 2010 elections, Binay was way ahead of everybody else for President in 2016. There was nobody else tall enough to challenge him on the horizon. For three years, he even led President Pnoy in popularity and satisfaction ratings in the two major survey outfits: SWS and Pulse Asia.
However, in 2012, PNoy learned his politics. He bribed the members of the Lower House to Impeach Chief Justice Renato Corona. He bribed the majority of Senators to convict him. Despite his sliding popularity, he was able to cobble together an opportunistic coalition for the 2013 mid elections. He made bilateral alliances with the Nacionalista Party, the LDP and even the Magdalo. He neutralized the Lakas and GMA’s allies and stalwarts.
He won nine out of twelve Senate seats: Poe, Legarda, Cayetano, Escudero, Angara, Bam Aquino, Trillanes and Cynthia Villar.The UNA got only three seats: Nancy Binay in fifth place, JV Ejercito in eleventh and Greg Honasan in twelfth place.
For the past year, he has managed to stifle most of the Truth in the Pork (PDAF) Scam and Scandal. A year ago, Ben Luy had already been rescued from Janet Lim Napoles’ benevolent detention. The MOST connection was at work to control the NBI investigation. However, the information was leaked to the PDI, which came out with a series of exposes on or about July 20, 2013.
The Administration still managed to manipulate the evidence (including COA investigations and reports) and the witnesses to focus on those in the opposition: Enrile, Jinggoy Estrada and Bong Revilla. Meanwhile, information implicating Senators, Congressmen and Executive officials belonging to the Administration have been kept from the Mass Media. The NBI, DOJ and the Ombudsman have pussyfooted on the investigation and prosecution of the guilty who belong to the LP and the Administration.
Pinoy has given Mar Roxas and his cohorts all the budget, exposure and power to help the LP position its favourite but weak Presidentiable for the 2016 race. On the other hand, they have done everything to deprive Binay of the budget, exposure and power that he deserves as the President’s appointee as HUDCC Chairman and Presidential Adviser on Overseas Filipinos.
Four years on since the May 2010 National Elections, Binay has maintained his lead. The lead is so big that even if Binay, Erap, Grace Poe, Bongbong Marcos and Bong Revilla were too all run together with all the LP and Administration candidates that can be put up, Binay would still win. If you were to total all the percentages of the Administration candidates for President, this would come out to 43 – 45 %. On the other hand, Binay, Miriam, Bongbong and Bong would total 55 – 58 %.